My apologies again for the long stretch between posts. I have a huge backlog of information and new threads to post, but the priority for March and April was traction, getting our “OnDialog powered with SiteTuners” beta program off to a rocking start and servicing new customers. Our “quarters” have been off by 1 month ever since we started, so in essence we just wrapped up Q1 of 2009, and it was worth all the extra effort that went into it – Q1 rocked. Now I’ll have a bit more time to get back to educating, evangelizing and strategic planning.
I am attending eMetrics in San Jose, CA this week. This time it’s about what I can learn rather than what I can contribute, but I’m also here to support Tim Ash’s message on landing page optimization (SiteTuners now being a strategic partner of ours).
One thing that is quite obvious over the past year with regards to “metrics” and analysis is that it’s quite popular. I believe this is the case because people in this industry (marketing in general) want to believe that there are “scientific” answers or at least guidelines for what works and maybe why it works. I personally believe that simply isn’t true in any universal sense, and any useful lessons-learned are fleeting – because everything changes all the time… your audience changes (as individuals, as a collective, in composition, in expectation, in sophistication), technology changes, the “impressiveness” of your impressions change with time, culture, saturation, comparison, etc. and the cost/return on various techniques changes. Essentially, the volume of the unknown never really shrinks – “facts” just move back and forth across the boundary from predictable to unpredictable / known and unknown – sometimes too fast for any “scientific” measurement to capture accurately in order for you to take advantage of said measurement. So while analysis can be very useful (despite all that change), it can hold you back – what are you doing pro-actively while you are waiting for the results of analysis? And what if you are analyzing the wrong metrics? It can be a real trap.
Is there an analog to this from which we can learn something useful to help break out of the trap? Glad you asked, and the answer is, “yes”…
In business we have a couple rules of thumb that for the most part have been proven out – (1) K.I.S.S. – keep it simple stupid (you have no doubt heard this one many times) and (2) Fail Fast – nothing wrong in failing as long as you keep the negative impact of that failure to a minimum… in other words it’s perfectly fine to “experiment” when you simply don’t know the answer, but you have to experiment intelligently so that you do not also get caught in that trap.
The underlying concepts here are about progressing despite a lack of information on which to make decisions – don’t over-think things, keep moving forward and constantly adjust your course as you learn. Think of the “right direction” not as a straight line to a specific end point (that’s what’s always moving) but more as a general direction with some degree of latitude. You start in the middle of a circle, and you can reach the outer edge by heading in any of an infinite number of directions from 0 degrees back to 360 (which is 0 again
. But the edge is not the target; some moving point on the edge is the target. So you can expect that your path of success is bounded by a sector (a “wedge”) of the possible directions (say +/- 15 degrees from straight ahead). As long as you continually adjust your direction toward the moving target you will never be too far in error of what is “best” at that point in time. That is proactive progress as compared to looking to the past for knowledge to be applied to the future – that can take you in a wrong direction – look forward, move forward, look again, move again, repeat. That approach is very different than one based on analysis of the past.
Bottom line – analysis is (a) “cool” and (b) sometimes very useful… but if you base your next forward step purely on looking back at previous steps you can often turn in the wrong direction or hold a straight course that really needs to veer a little right or left.
That’s all very abstract, so in my next post I will be more concrete about at least one way in which you can be proactive rather than reactive and why you will want to do so. Gotta go learn.
